Football bet

Chelsea V Bolton (H) :)
Liverpool V Wolves (H) :(

Slovakia V Ireland

Again I'm going for the draw here.... I'm expecting a bounce from Ireland after Friday's disappointment. Draw is available at 3.3 with boylesports.

Estimates:
Home 44%
Draw 35% (2.86 would represent fair value)
Away 21%

:)
:)

Ireland V Russia

Going for the draw in this one at 3.2 with Boylesports. I expect a reaction from the Russian after losing to Slovakia. With Duff out and so many of the Irish team short of game time, I think the draw is good value at this price.

Estimated probabilities:
Home win: 39%
Draw: 36% (fair value would be 2.78)
Away win: 25%

:(

Switzerland V England

Switzerland V England (D) @ 3.5

I think England could drop points here - there's a bit of value on the draw ....

:(

EPL: football bet

Football is back.... again my focus this season will be on value bets, rather than just backing the big four at crap odds every week

Stoke v Tottenham (H) @ 3.4 .... here's hoping that home advantage pays off .... I reckon Spurs could be a bit tired after their mid-week game in Europe :(

West Brom V Sunderland (H) @ 2.5 .... again this is a value bet on a team with home advantage, Gooners spreadsheet has them at a 50% chance of winning so a price of 2.5 represents value..... :)

Golf: British Open

Rory McIlroy @ 16.0 e/w places 1-8 :) tied 3rd place, despite 2nd rd 80

Padraig Harrington @ 23.0 e/w places 1-7 :(

Robert Allenby @ 101.0 e/w places 1-7 :(

Geoff Ogilvy @ 101.0 e/w places 1-7 :(

WC semi final

Urugury V Holland 0-2 correct score @ 6.5

Just a small stake on this one, PP have a money back special if it finishes 0-0.... so there's a bit of insurance there too.
http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-08480-Uruguay-v-Netherlands.htm

Brazil V Holland

Could be a classic, but with so much at stake it could be a relatively tight, defensive game from both sides.

I'm taking the draw over 90mins @ 3.3 :(

round of 16

USA V Ghana - USA to qualify @ 1.73 :(

The US have shown a lot of spirit to get to out of the group stages.... I think they might just extend that run to the quarters.

WC betting

I reckon value bets on some of the outsiders is the way to go in this tournament. Some of the big European names (England, France, Spain, Italy etc) have underperformed.... I reckon there could be some value to be had on the underdogs

Portugal v North Korea (D) @ 4.75 :( way wrong....
U.S.A. v Algeria (H) @ 1.91 :) last min win
Paraguay v New Zealand (D) @ 4.0 :) Kiwis bow out undefeated

World Cup

England V USA ... correct score 2-1 :(

Holland to win the World Cup @ 10.0 :( but hedged enough of the bet to make a few quid on Spain's win

Football bet

Man U V Spurs (H) @ 1.5, I reckon Man U will try to keep the pressure on Chelsea with a home win :)

Wolves V Blackburn (H) @ 2.25, if Wolves can "man-up" for this game, I think they can nick the win that will keep them up. :(

US Masters

I'm taking a tip from Off the Ball and going with this lot:

Villegas, Camilo @ 41.0

Poulter, Ian @ 36.0

Goosen, Retief @ 23.0

Football

Arsenal v Wolves (D) @ 6.0 :(

Everton v West Ham (H) @ 1.44 :(

Sunderland v Tottenham (D) @3.4 :(

Munster (-6pts) v Leinster (H) @ 1.9 :(

A bad weekend ..... esp. the added time goal from Bentner....

football

West Ham V Bolton (H) @ 1.8 :(

Football

Stoke V Arsenal (A) @ 1.75 :)

S'land V Fulham (H) @ 2.15 :(

Footbal bet

Everton V Man U (H) @ 4.5 :)
Here's hoping that the trip to Milan took something out of them. Everton are going well at the moment, having Arteta back is a help too.

Wigan V Spurs (D) @ 3.4 :(
The pitch is in a jocker, which should level things out a bit. Spurs are definitely the better football team and will have chances - Crouch and Defoe are excellent up front for them. Value bet here is the draw.... Spurs at evens is just too low a price.

Football

Bolton V Fulham (H) @ 2.3 :(
I reckon Owen Coyle will continue to have a good influence on Bolton, home win

Hull @ 5.50 :)
Hull v Man City
This is the value bet of the weekend, probably wont come in, but the price has tempted me in.....

Stoke @ 2.25 :)
Stoke v Blackburn
Always in with a shout at home, great support from the crowd..... good value at better than evens, gooner has them at 1.79 fair value, so the price is right.

Football

Arsenal V Man U (D) :(

Football bet

Everton V Man City (H) @ 2.9 :)
This is my leopards-dont-change-their-spots bet for the weekend. Man City have been suspect on the road for a while now, I dont think Mancini will be able to change that overnight. Everton played well against Arsenal last weekend, if they carry that form into this fixture, they are in with a shout. 2.9 is generous price for a home win.

Stoke City V Liverpool (H) @ 3.75 :(
An even more generous price on a home team that have done well in front of their own fans. Liverpool are missing Gerrard, Torres and Benayoun .... they could stuggle against a robust Stoke side. Stoke will create a few chances, question is whether they can take them.